Model evaluation for tas

• Climate variables used as response: - sfcWind, tas, pr: original scale daily, reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds: original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily

• Training: All models are trained using ERA5 in reduced scale as observations. Training data perdiod: 1980 - 2015.

• Validation Period: 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00

• Response variable to predict: upscaled ERA5 (daily or monthly)

• Predictors variables: daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds , the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds.

Numerical evaluation metrics

• Each row correspond an evaluation metric
• Dark blue cell indicates the best model in the row.
• Light blue cell indicates the second best model in the row.

Metric	xgboost	cnn	naive	lstm
mae	0.64	0.82	0.83	0.71
cor	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.99
ratio_of_sd	0.99	1.01	0.98	0.98
KGE	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
amplitude_mae	1.03	1.09	1.95	1.07
maximum_difference	1.49	1.43	1.44	1.38
sign_correlation	0.89	0.79	0.91	0.87
extreme_correlation	0.81	0.76	0.71	0.84
qqplot_mae	0.06	0.35	0.09	0.38
acf_mae	0.02	0.04	0.03	0.01
extremogram_mae	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01

Graphical evaluation metrics

• Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).

• Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.

• Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)

• In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.